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Evolutionary or Revolutionary?

Sarah Lacy’s TechCrunch post on the future of the Web sparked some thought on evolutionary versus revolutionary changes.  She discusses how the rate of innovation within an area decreases over time and questions if the Internet’s peak innovation rate is behind us.  I think she’s right about the general rule, but “the Web” is too large to follow it and like all important life lessons, this one’s part of a classic movie: Back to the Future II.

I’ve always enjoyed watching depictions of the future since they usually focus on evolutionary changes.  In Back to the Future II, the house in 2015 showed fax machines everywhere.  That made sense at the time: take the technology you have and expand it.  But clearly the future looks a little different.  I guess you can say fax machines followed the path of slowing innovation, but communications technology certainly didn’t.  I think it’s more likely that parts of the Web are past their prime rate of innovation, but the Web as a whole is simply too broad and powerful to follow the same path. 

I find it more interesting to think about how deep change frequently comes from completely new ideas rather than simply expanding on what exists today.  It’s why research, even when its ultimate use to society is unknown, is critical.  A great example is the microwave: if you gave someone unlimited funds to improve the conventional oven, you’re more likely to to build the world’s best conventional oven than the microware.  Sometimes the best innovations happen when you’re not looking for them.